So you’re wondering, how are gas prices going up all over again? An average of approximately $2 just this spring has skyrocketed 50% in a matter of months, leaving us with a $3 average 2 weeks shy of the July 4 holiday weekend. A barrel of oil has risen from about $35 to nearly $70 in this same time period.
But what about the greedy oil execs? Did they take the winter off from their rampant greed, decrease gas prices for us, and then decide to jack them up just in time for your summer vacation?
Or maybe global demand went into a slumber during the winter and has awoken just in time for the summer driving season?
Or maybe the Middle East conspirators decided to spring back into action and manipulate oil prices, after conveniently taking the last several months off from their…conspiring?
Or maybe, it’s none of the above. Maybe, just maybe, the flooding of the global marketplace with trillions of dollars has forced up the price of a barrel of oil (which of course is denominated in dollars), thus resulting in higher gas prices being passed along at the pump. Scary thing is, those trillions have just begun to make their way into the economic system, so we’re only experiencing the leading edge of the resultant effects.
But the above explanation is the hardest to swallow, because what it portends for the country is far worse than the $3/gallon pain you’re feeling right now. What it means is the US government cure for the recession has in fact sealed our fate with the promise of significant inflation, sparked by the money printing orgy that started in 2008 and came to a crescendo in February with the latest stimulus bill and Fed Reserve Treasury bond buybacks that promise to inject trillions of dollars into the economy.
This would also explain why your grocery bill has been rising steadily as well, as commodity prices are linked to dollars as well. In fact, it is generally true that inflation is going to show up most drastically in those goods that an individual or entity cannot do without: things like food, energy, and health care cannot be excised from people’s budgets…you essentially must pay the cost whatever it is. Even higher education, perceived as mandatory in developed countries, suffers at the hand of inflation, as institutions sense unlimited demand for their product and continually raise tuition costs. These costs are then absorbed through greater and greater leverage on the part of the student and/or their family, who are then saddled with crushing debt obligations upon graduation.
Of course the government will continue telling you inflation is under control at the standard issue 3-4% figure they disseminate every few months, but tell that to the family of four living on $45,000 a year, spending $300 a week on groceries now versus $225 a few weeks ago, and $50 a week on gas as opposed to the $40 a week recently as well. It’s no secret that families living anywhere near the median household income cannot well absorb 50+% increases in their standard purchases, like food and energy. But that’s what your “stimulus” bill will now demand of you.
In fact, the pain our country felt during the recent Great Recession was mitigated by the fact that commodity prices fell, leaving us with cheaper gas and food bills to offset rising unemployment and loss of home equity. The coming depression will put us through a period where prices will rise significantly as people lose their jobs and their homes. Then we will know what economic misery feels like, and the 2008 meltdown will appear pleasant by comparison.
Tuesday, June 23, 2009
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2 comments:
Looks like you took the winter off too - from blogging that is. I agree with you though, stagflation seems to be coming in hot...
Interesting. I have no reason not to agree with your point... inflation sucks. But I'm more interested then in what is the right answer. How do you "fix" the economy that is frozen from illiquidity without printing more dollars. BTW, if you answer that correctly, you get Bernanke's job, so be careful how you answer. Since I don't have that answer, I'll offer some fun math:
You refer to trillions. I tried to get an actual count of how many trillions we're talking about. I found 7.2 trillion on this site from the previous administration http://www.bizzia.com/yieldingwealth/economic-stimulus-how-much-has-been-spent-so-far/ and of course there is the $787 Billion from the current administration. Let's just round that to a gentlemen's 8 trillion.
You used gas prices as one of your indicators of inflation.
The US uses 390 Million gallons of gasoline per day per this site: http://www.eia.doe.gov/basics/quickoil.html
So let's see how many days higher gas prices alone would make up for the printed inflation considering the $1 increase from $2 to $3.
$8,000,000,000,000 / $390,000,000 = 20,513 days or 56.2 years.
Hmm, that's grim, that math wasn't as fun as I thought it might be.
But look on the bright side, America's not the only one paying for America's inflation and gas is not the only way it's getting paid for. Add in the groceries and other factors as you did and multiply by US Debt holders like China, India, Russia, Australia, EU, Middle East, and these $8 trills will be fully dealt with in a few years.
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